The 4-2-3-1: Edition 1.6
The percolating EPL relegation battle, PSG's recurring disappointment, and a keeper who brought himself back from professional ruin
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Four Things We Like
Relegation battle in the Premier League. With only five points separating 12th place Crystal Palace (27 points) from 20th place Southampton (22 points), it seems the EPL relegation battle may prove more exciting than the title race. This is another reminder of why fans pushed back so firmly at the Super League discussions. Finishing in the bottom three has serious financial implications for these clubs and these players. As you watch these matches play out down the stretch, remember that Super Leagues that guarantee spots would take away from this excitement.
Benfica. The Portuguese league leaders have lost only one game all season and look set to win their first league title since 2018-19. Benfica also find themselves in the UCL quarterfinals for the second year running, led by Portuguese stars João Mário, Gonçalo Ramos, and Rafa Silva. Their status as a top 5 outsider means their play is sometimes swept under the rug. Whoever draws them in the next round of the UEFA Champions League will need to make sure they don’t overlook this talented side.
A year without a title race? I don’t think this will happen, but after taking a look at the current tables of the top five leagues, it is certainly possible. Only two leagues are separated by fewer than 9 points (EPL and Bundesliga). Bayern lead Dortmund by 2 points and Arsenal lead Man City by 5 points. It is not inconceivable to think that Bayern will run away with the title, as they have done in almost every season in recent memory. That would leave only the EPL to provide us with a title race. After all, it is the greatest league in the world for a reason.
UCL refereeing. I am sure there are a few examples of refereeing gaffes during the UCL knockout rounds, but largely, the officials have allowed the players to do the talking. Compared with the Premier League, where every weekend brings two or three egregious errors, it is refreshing to see the world’s best controlling the games. Let’s hope this continues through the later rounds of the competition.
Two Things We Don’t Like
Liverpool’s volatile season. Perhaps the surprise result of the season was Liverpool’s drubbing of Manchester United 7-0 (albeit, with an xG of approximately 3-1). Harvey Elliott justified his position in the starting lineup and the entire front 6 played incredibly. The team then followed that up with a lackluster performance against Bournemouth, losing 1-0. Liverpool travels to Real Madrid at midweek, a team that they allowed 5 consecutive goals to after taking a 2-0 lead at home. I am not ready to completely rule out a Liverpool comeback, but it will still take something special to save their season.
PSG’s UCL failure. We cannot glance over the failure that haunted PSG this week. While they cannot be blamed for struggling against one of the strongest teams in the world (Bayern Munich), they can be criticized for how they struggled. The team looked disjointed between defense and attack, at times defending with only 9 players as Messi and Neymar stayed up front. Perhaps the team will rethink their current strategy of buying the biggest stars and will look closer to home, developing an identity in the greatest footballing city in the world.
Three Players to Watch
Ollie Watkins. Watkins seems to have finally found his footing at Aston Villa under Unai Emery. According to FB Ref, Watkins does nothing special relative to peers, but watch him in game and you can see how infectious his work rate is. He came up through League Two, then the Championship, before finally getting his move to the Premier League. Watkins is easy to root for and it is great to see the goals and assists starting to flow.
Gonçalo Ramos. Admittedly, I have not seen much of Ramos in action. He was rumored to have interested a few large clubs last summer, then he broke out in the final group stage game at the 2022 World Cup. His stats paint him as a true striker, generating 0.73 non-penalty goals per 90, while only creating 0.05 assists per 90. Ramos is a scorer who is not afraid to put in a defensive shift (both interceptions and clearances are above average vs. peers).1 I will be eagerly awaiting his performance in the next round of UCL and a potential move to a larger club this summer.
Kepa Arrizabalaga. Kepa is playing very well. It took a few years for his image to recover from refusing to come off during Chelsea’s cup final, but I think it may finally be turning the corner. He is letting his play do the talking, ranking second in post-shot xG +/- per 90 minutes. It is good to see a player come back from a momentary lapse in judgment. Hopefully he continues to trend in this upward direction.
One Prediction
Bayern will buy at least two players in total from Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig this summer. An age old summer tradition - Bayern scouring the rosters of its top competitors for its next generation of talent. With Dortmund closing in on them, it only makes sense that the leaders take from their worthy rivals. Top of mind are Karim Adeyemi of Dortmund and Dominik Szoboszlai of RBL. Both are deserving of a step to the next level.
FB Ref